Tuesday’s announcements about Hunter Biden’s and Donald Trump’s legal woes only underscore how unusual this presidential primary season has been.
As for the president’s son, Hunter Biden, the Department of Justice announced he will plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and illegal possession of a firearm, a deal that is likely to keep him out of prison. Separately on Tuesday, a federal judge in Florida said that former president Trump’s trial over the mishandling of classified documents could start as early as Aug. 14, some nine days before the first Republican presidential debate.
This political season isn’t awash with talk about polling or endorsements or controversies bubbling up as candidates hit the campaign trail. Instead, it’s been largely quiet from even the most ambitious candidates, with the front-runners holding few events.
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At this point, federal prosecutors are driving the news, not the candidates.
It’s a remarkable departure. For decades, the four-year presidential campaign cycle has had roughly the same cadence.
Early visits to various states test the waters years in advance, followed by the formation of exploratory committees and political action committees. The summer before the first presidential primaries, things get messy. Usually around mid-June, the cable news chatter is about who might still enter the presidential race.
Around this time in 2019, a big political news story was about Joe Biden’s long-time friendship and support of Strom Thurmond, the segregationist senator from South Carolina who died in 2003. Another major story: Would billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, who was spending millions on television ads, jump into the presidential race?
In 2015, it was the bitter back-and-forth drama between the presidential campaigns of two South Florida men: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. The potential candidate people were discussing? Sitting vice president Joe Biden.
In 2012, the political talk was all about the polls and then-Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann’s surge against Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. And would Chris Christie or Rick Perry jump in?
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Now consider the talk this week. Very few candidates are hitting the stump in early primary states. Most Republican candidates are focused on quietly raising money to qualify for the August debate. President Biden just held his first campaign event — a rally in Philadelphia — after being in the race for two months. Donald Trump won’t have another event until next week.
At the moment, all that seems to matter in politics — and in the 2024 presidential campaign — is whether Trump’s federal trial about the mishandling of classified documents will actually begin in August (it won’t), and whether there will be further investigations into Hunter Biden after news of his plea deal (Republicans say there will be, at least in the US House). Importantly, the news about Hunter Biden so far has no connection to his father, even after five years of investigation, all of it from Trump appointees.
It’s these moves by prosecutors, particularly the handful looking into Trump, that have had the biggest impact on the campaign so far. Republicans continue to rally behind Trump, who has sucked up all the oxygen for the other candidates. Consider this: Nikki Haley, just trying to break through with any coverage, announced she will give a “major” speech about China at a Washington think tank on Friday, which is convenient for the many political journalists based in the city. Haley’s gambit may not get much attention, but it’s an attempt.
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Indeed, it’s unclear what new ideas — or new candidates — will get any momentum until the first Republican debate on Aug. 23.
This is not to suggest that nothing big could happen after that. At this point in 2007, Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and in 2015 Jeb Bush was leading the Republican field. Neither got their party’s nomination those years.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.