Sunrise this morning was its earliest of the entire year and with Tuesday’s fog having dissipated, blue skies took over and now it’s time to wait for potential severe weather.
There’s a kink in the jet stream that is moving over the region this afternoon and offshore tonight. That will provide some energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere that, in combination with the sunshine, moderate levels of humidity, and warm temperatures, can produce strong to severe thunderstorms.
Today’s situation is not completely clear-cut, in other words. Some days I feel more confident about severe weather but today I think the chances of it are fairly marginal.
Advertisement
Nevertheless, we will watch an area of showers and thunderstorms move from New York east to the Berkshires and then head to the coastline around 5 p.m. It’s at this time that Central and Eastern Massachusetts is under the greatest risk for these storms. The loop below from just after 2 p.m. today already shows the line of storms.
If they become severe they could contain strong and damaging winds as well as small hail. In terms of tornadic activity it’s not a non-zero chance but it’s very minimal. Most of us will not see thunderstorms but many of us will see at least a shower.
These should be offshore after 9 or 10 p.m. The guidance that meteorologists used to help forecast where severe weather is most likely points to cities and towns just west of the coastline.
I think it’s likely that as these storms move northeast into Essex County and then on into New Hampshire and Maine, they will tend to become weaker, due to the cooler and more stable air in those locations.
The jet stream beyond today will continue to be locked up in a way that brings slightly cooler than average air as well as the ever-present chance of showers to continue into the weekend.
Advertisement
In particular, Saturday looks like there could be more widespread showers and even some thunderstorms. It’s the same story with regard to who will see them and who won’t — it’s just impossible to tell you if you’re going to get rain at a particular time.
Looking ahead to Father’s Day looks a little better than Saturday, with a blend of clouds and sun, temperatures somewhere in the 70s, and just a chance of a couple of showers. There will be time in the next few days to hone that forecast a bit more.